LONDON, ENGLAND - OCTOBER 23: A visual representation of the digital Cryptocurrency, Bitcoin on ... [+] October 23, 2017 in London, England. Cryptocurrencies including Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Lightcoin have seen unprecedented growth in 2017, despite remaining extremely volatile. While digital currencies across the board have divided opinion between financial institutions, and now have a market cap of around 175 Billion USD, the crypto sector coninues to grow, as it sees wider mainstreem adoption. (Photo by Dan Kitwood/Getty Images)
Getty ImagesYou're a leader: a CEO, a nonprofit executive director, an elected official, an investment manager. As such, your job is to see the future or – at the very least – how and from where that future is coming at you. If you're an exceptional leader, you're a step ahead of this, actually creating the future you'll be dealing with. The success of every decision you make hangs in the balance. Your organization's very existence depends on that unique ability of yours: vision.
This is nothing new. "Change is the law of life," said John Kennedy. "And those who look only to the past or present are certain to miss the future." Nothing new there, but there is something new coming into the mix: the pace of change. If we trace the history of progress, defined here as the invention or discovery of civilization-changing phenomena – stone tools, controlled use of fire, clothing, agriculture, alphabets, electricity, banking, movable type, steam power, telegraphy, photography, electric light, flight, radio, pharmaceuticals, television, space travel, the internet , robotics, social media, mRNA, artificial intelligence, cryptocurrency – we see an interesting pattern. Despite this woefully incomplete list, we understand that, throughout history, the true civilization changers come at us less time after the one before it than that one took afte its predecessor.
Your leadership challenge
Which brings us to a leadership challenge, namely, how to deal with these changes on technical, social, and ethical levels. The most fundamental of these considerations – involvement – is the first question: Do we or don't we get involved to begin with?
Crypto is a great example, but first…
History is full of these successful decisions or unsuccessful non-decisions. For instance, soon after World War II, when jet engines on airplanes proved to be viable and applicable for commercial flight, Boeing jumped all over the idea, while Douglas retreated. The result? Boeing's 707, a big, lumbering, 4-engine craft, opened the game, quite successfully. By the time Douglas realized it and countered with its DC8, Boeing's lead was insurmountable. In the late fifties, with commercial jet planes a certainty, Boeing accepted the challenge to build a shorter-range plane, good for high-traffic routes like New York-Miami. Their answer was the wildly successful 727 which for years had no competition because … why? … Douglas retreated. When Douglas finally realized (once again) that they failed to see the future, they came back with the DC9. Good plane, but a day late and a dollar short.
Then Boeing changed aviation once again with the concept of a wide body: the 747. Following behind, Douglas gave the world the DC-10, a favorite of crews and passengers alike, but late to the party once again. It's the ongoing story of the difference between seeing the future and either embracing it or not. Actually, this story was about one player creating the future while the other shrank from the challenge.
Of course, this could go the other way. Without going into too much detail, think about how much money was lost by a lot of people and companies betting on the rotary engine for cars after the war. There was a positive action that left participants ruing their decision.
Possible outcomes
So as a leader, here's how any future-oriented decision can shake out. You can: (1) Seize the day, be right, and enjoy success; (2) Seize the day, make the wrong bet, and suffer the losses; (3) Back off, miss the boat, and languish in "what ifs"; (4) Back off, watch the disaster, and wipe your brow in relief.
And now to crypto
Same thing with cryptocurrency, except with a twist. You see the potential, but you're uncomfortable (to say the least) with the paucity of regulation. Do you and your company get into crypto or not? I convened an informal half-hour, rapid-fire roundtable of five executives from companies ranging in size from $2.8 billion to $7.0 billion – all acquaintances of mine – to get a feel.
After a precipitous fall in the global value of cryptocurrency – from a high of $3.2 trillion in November 2021 to a crash landing of $835 billion in December 2022, a 74% drop – we've seen a bit of an uptick to $1.18 trillion, but another drop to $1.04 trillion as of this posting. Our roundtable participants were clear on one thing: their leadership and fiduciary responsibilities – not to mention code of ethics – made their decision easy. This is no time to gamble their or their company's financial well being or, for that matter, the lives of the employees and their families that are dependent on them.
Until regulations make this a fair game, nothin' doing, they said.